Viendo archivo del lunes, 24 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 328 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several low C-class flares were observed throughout the period. Region 501 (N03W72) is undergoing considerable decay as it approaches the west limb, but is still producing isolated C-class flares. Region 508 (S17E08) was responsible for most of the low C-class activity. No significant change was noted in this moderately complex region over the last 24 hours. It maintains a beta-gamma configuration in approximately 450 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 507 (N09W03) is the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but was rather quiet this period. A weak delta configuration is apparent in this spot group with over 700 millionths of areal coverage. New Regions 509 (S10E56) and 510 (S22E62) were numbered today. Region 509 produced a C2/Sf flare at 24/1854Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible, primarily from Regions 501, 507, and 508.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods in the higher latitudes. A well positioned coronal hole is producing solar wind speeds near 600 km/s, creating a weak disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 26 November. Isolated minor storm levels are also expected, but will be confined mostly to higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 27 November as the current disturbance subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Nov a 27 Nov
Clase M40%40%30%
Clase X10%10%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Nov 177
  Previsto   25 Nov-27 Nov  175/170/160
  Media de 90 Días        24 Nov 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Nov  013/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  015/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  015/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Nov a 27 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%30%
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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