Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 325 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Regions 507 (N09E36) and
508 (S18E47) produced several C-class flares, and Region 501
(N04W32) produced an M5.8/2b at 20/2354 UTC. A CME was observed on
LASCO associated with the M5 flare, although it was not directed at
the earth. No significant developments were observed with any
active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 501, 507, and 508 are capable of
producing major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at major storm levels due to
the remaining effects of a CME arrival early on 20 November.
Activity diminished to unsettled levels by the end of the period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit climbed
steadily during the period, and ended the period near the 10 pfu
threshold.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor
storm conditions on 22 November may be caused by a CME shock arrival
originating from the M9 flare observed on 20 November. Isolated
minor storm conditions are also possible on 23 November due to the
effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal
hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Nov a 24 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Nov 177 Previsto 22 Nov-24 Nov 180/190/200 Media de 90 Días 21 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Nov 067/117 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 035/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov 025/035-015/025-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Nov a 24 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
sábado, 23 marzo 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
miércoles, 20 marzo 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
jueves, 22 febrero 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR 3637, 3638, 3643 40Weird SOHO Noise? 11Growth of Cycle 25 405Unproven theories 322Space Weather Memes 334
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 2024/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 2024/04/18 | M1.2 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 2024/04/16 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 2022/06/08 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |