Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 501 (N02W18)
produced an M9.6/2b flare at 20/0747 UTC with an associated Type IV
radio sweep and a 9700 pfu tenflare. This flare also produced a CME
with an estimated velocity of 700 km/s. Region 507 (N07E49)
produced a C8.6 at 20/1929 UTC. All regions on the disk were stable
in size. Two regions increased in complexity: Region 501 developed
into a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, and Region 508
(S20E58) developed into a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 501, 507 and 508 are capable of producing
major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. A
CME shock arrived at SOHO/MTOF and was observed at 20/0740 UTC, and
a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 0805 UTC. A very
strong (55 nT) southward component of the interplanetary magnetic
field resulted in severe geomagnetic storming during the latter half
of the day. Magnetopause crossings were observed at both main GOES
satellites, at 1301 UTC for GOES 12 and at 1628 UTC for GOES 10.
The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit dropped
below high levels early in the day and have remained below
threshold. The M9 flare produced elevated 10 MeV proton levels at
geosynchronous orbit, but this activity did not cross event
thresholds.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active all three days, with major storm
conditions possible early on 21 November from the lingering effects
of the geomagnetic storm in progress. Minor storming is possible on
22-23 November from a CME shock arrival originating from the M9
flare observed earlier today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Nov a 23 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 75% | 80% |
| Clase X | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Nov 175 Previsto 21 Nov-23 Nov 180/190/200 Media de 90 Días 20 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Nov 105/115 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 040/045-025/035-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Nov a 23 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 15% |
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