Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N03W04) continues to be active, generating a series of high C-class flares and an M1.7 at 19/0401Z. Region 508 (S17E75) formerly old Region 486, was newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 505 (S22E41) and 506 (S20E62), along with 501 will continue to be a strong threat for M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole which had driven high solar wind speeds for the last few days, has progressed beyond geoeffective range, and activity has relaxed. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours. Minor storm levels should occur near the middle of the period, due to a glancing blow from an interplanetary shock issued by an M4 flare on 17 Nov. Beginning near midday on day 2, magnetic activity should jump quickly to active to major storm levels for the remainder of the period. A strong shock associated with a combination of a disappearing solar filament and coronal mass ejection should impact the Earth's magnetic field on or about 20 Nov at 1200Z.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Nov a 22 Nov
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X20%25%25%
Protón15%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Nov 155
  Previsto   20 Nov-22 Nov  180/200/210
  Media de 90 Días        19 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Nov  018/020
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  015/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  040/050-030/040-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Nov a 22 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%35%
Tormenta Menor35%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%15%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%40%
Tormenta Menor30%35%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%20%15%

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