Viendo archivo de domingo, 16 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 320 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 501 (N03E35) produced a single long duration C-class flare at 1039Z. This Region continues to show some minor activity, but so far poses little threat of major flare. Last solar rotation's Regions 486 and 488 are now near the limb, and though they show good loop structure and intensity, are currently less intense than their last appearance. Analysis during their passage on the back side of the sun indicate last major eruption on the 13th of November.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 501 is a minor threat to produce M-class flares throughout the period. Regions 486 and 488 from the previous rotation are due to return by 18 November, and have the potential even now while on the limb to produce M-class flares, with a very small chance to produce X-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting solar wind speeds in excess of 750 km/s. This and interplanetary magnetic field variations have produced, and will continue to produce, active to minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels. The coronal hole which is currently elevating our magnetic activity will continue to be a driver through day two, abating by midway through day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Nov a 19 Nov
Clase M40%50%50%
Clase X05%05%10%
Protón05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       16 Nov 104
  Previsto   17 Nov-19 Nov  105/125/150
  Media de 90 Días        16 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 15 Nov  021/040
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  025/032
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  025/035-020/030-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Nov a 19 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor35%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor35%25%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%25%20%

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