Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 501(N03E48) produced a C2/Sf flare at 15/1912Z and a number of smaller C and B-class flares. The region maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 503(N17E09) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance of isolated moderate activity on 16 and 17 November. Old Region 488(N08, L=290) is expected to return to the visible disk on 18 November and could have M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels. At approximately 0520Z, a shock was observed passing the NASA/ACE spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased to 750 km/s and Bz was southward for a four hour period near -10nT. Minor to major storm levels were observed as a result of the shock combined with continued high speed stream effects. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. The effects of the large coronal hole high speed stream is expected to continue. Minor storm levels are expected, with a chance of isolated major storm levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Nov a 18 Nov
Clase M40%40%45%
Clase X05%05%10%
Protón05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Nov 098
  Previsto   16 Nov-18 Nov  105/105/125
  Media de 90 Días        15 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Nov  021/037
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  030/035
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Nov a 18 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%35%
Tormenta Menor35%35%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%30%
Tormenta Menor45%45%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa35%35%30%

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