Viendo archivo del viernes, 14 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all
from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant
penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these
areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta
magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or
decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are
about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is
a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of
Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as
well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC
through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high
speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating
but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz),
all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days
(14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the
third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the
continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Nov 099 Previsto 15 Nov-17 Nov 100/105/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Nov 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov 028/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Nov 028/036 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
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