Viendo archivo de viernes, 14 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of occasional low level C-class and upper level B-class flares, all from Region 501 (N05E61). The region consists of two dominant penumbral areas that are stacked on top of each other. Both of these areas appear to have mixed magnetic polarities making for a delta magnetic classification. The region does not appear to be growing or decaying. New Region 502 (N05E41) was assigned to the spots that are about 20 degrees west of the main part of Region 501. Region 502 is a simple, small beta type sunspot group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity out of Region 501, and there is a slight chance for major flare activity as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. Mostly minor storm levels predominated beginning at 13/2100 UTC through 14/1500 UTC. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate high speed, low density, high temperature solar wind with an oscillating but mostly negative interplanetary magnetic field Z-component (Bz), all consistent with an ongoing coronal hole driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next two days (14-15 November). A decline to mostly active is expected on the third day (16 November). The effects are expected due to the continued influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Nov 099
  Previsto   15 Nov-17 Nov  100/105/105
  Media de 90 Días        14 Nov 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov  028/042
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  028/036
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%45%45%
Tormenta Menor35%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%35%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%20%20%

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