Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 317 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours due to two M-class flares, both from newly assigned Region 501 (N05E65), which is the return of old Region 484. The first was an impulsive M1.6 at 0501 UTC. The second was a long duration M1.4 with maximum at 0929 UTC. The M1.4 was associated with a fast CME (about 1100 km/s) that appeared to erupt off east limb. Limited observations hindered analysis of the region, but it appears to have sunspot area of at least 340 millionths.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days, with Region 501 the most likely source for activity. There is a slight chance for major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels, with a period of major storm levels at high latitudes. Solar wind signatures continue to show high speed, low density, high temperature, with fairly regular oscillations of the z-component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz), all of which strongly suggest the enhanced geomagnetic activity is being driven by a high-speed coronal hole solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods for 14-15 November as the current disturbance persists. There should be a slight decline to mostly active on 16 November.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Nov a 16 Nov
Clase M60%60%60%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Nov 102
  Previsto   14 Nov-16 Nov  105/110/115
  Media de 90 Días        13 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Nov  020/026
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Nov  025/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Nov a 16 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor30%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%25%20%

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