Viendo archivo del martes, 11 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 315 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 498 (S04W67)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1351 UTC. A slow rise and fall x-ray
flare began at about 11/1523 UTC and reached a maximum of C8 at
11/1615 UTC. This activity appears to have originated from just
behind the east limb near the expected location of old active Region
484 (N03, L=355).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares possible in Region 498 or at the east
limb near old Region 484 (N03, L=355).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm levels. A
single K=7 period was observed at Boulder from 11/0300-0600 UTC.
Solar wind conditions of high speed (700-800 km/s) and low density
(about 2 p/cc) suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active with occasional minor storm periods.
The coronal hole related disturbance is expected to persist for the
duration of the three-day forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Nov 096 Previsto 12 Nov-14 Nov 100/115/130 Media de 90 Días 11 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 015/030 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 030/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 025/025-025/030-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Nov a 14 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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