Viendo archivo del jueves, 6 noviembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 310 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Nov 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. After nearly
three weeks of intense solar activity, the visible surface of the
sun is almost spotless. Region 495 (S21W76) is the only spot group
visible and has exhibited little change from yesterday. A long
duration B5 X-ray enhancement was observed at 06/1831Z and EIT
imagery suggests a source from beyond the west limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to range
from very low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The shock
from the X28 flare on 04 November reached Earth at 06/1937Z. A 31nT
sudden impulse was observed on the Boulder magnetometer and activity
reached minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field, as measured by the NASA/ACE spacecraft initially
turned south to -7 nT and total field measurement reached 15 nT. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event continues with current flux levels
at 18 pfu and slowly decreasing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor storm levels are
expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on day one.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Nov a 09 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 50% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Nov 098 Previsto 07 Nov-09 Nov 095/090/090 Media de 90 Días 06 Nov 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Nov 004/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov 020/020-010/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Nov a 09 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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