Viendo archivo del sábado, 25 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 298 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 484 (N04W28)
produced three M-class flares, the strongest being a M1.7/Sf at
25/0553 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. At 24/0446 UTC,
Region 486 produced an M1.2/2n with an associated CME with a speed
of approximately 585 km/s. This CME did not appear to be
earth-directed. Both regions maintained their magnetic complexity
and grew slightly in size. Region 486 is now observed at 2200 mils.
A 10-degree filament erupted at S24W41 sometime between 24/2342 and
25/1417 UTC. New Region 487 at N13E72 was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce
M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Residual effects
from yesterday's transient arrival continue to cause occasional
active conditions. Solar wind speed has decreased steadily to about
500 km/s, and Bz continues to maintain a consistent northward
orientation.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active throughout the period, with isolated
minor storm conditions possible on day one.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Oct a 28 Oct
| Clase M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Clase X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Oct 222 Previsto 26 Oct-28 Oct 210/210/200 Media de 90 Días 25 Oct 119
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Oct 028/034 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Oct 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Oct a 28 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 20% |
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