Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 octubre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X50%50%50%
Protón25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Oct 183
  Previsto   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  Media de 90 Días        23 Oct 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%40%
Tormenta Menor40%40%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%30%20%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor40%40%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%40%40%

< < Ir a la visión general diaria

Últimas noticias

Apoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!

Mucha gente viene a SpaceWeatherLive para seguir la actividad del Sol o previsión de aurora, pero con esta cantidad de tráfico se incrementan los costos del servidor. ¡Considere hacer una donación si disfruta de SpaceWeatherLive para que podamos mantener el sitio web en línea!

54%
Apoya a SpaceWeatherLive con nuestro merchandise
Échale un ojo a nuestro merchandise

Hechos clima espacial

Último evento clase X2024/03/28X1.1
Último evento clase M2024/04/25M1.0
Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas2024/04/19Kp7 (G3)
Días sin manchas
Último día sin manchas2022/06/08
Promedio de manchas solares mensuales
marzo 2024104.9 -19.8
Last 30 days133.9 +26.6

Efemérides*

Llamarada solar
12014X1.99
22001M3.98
32004M3.25
42003M1.84
52004M1.3
ApG
1200333G1
2201227G1
3199826G1
4202118G1
5199517G1
*desde 1994

Redes sociales