Viendo archivo de jueves, 23 octubre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels again today. Region 486 (S16E70) produced a major flare at 23/0835 UTC; it was an X5/1b event, with an associated Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 967 km/s. An associated CME was also seen on SOHO/LASCO imagery. A second major flare from this region occurred at 23/2004 UTC, which was an impulsive X1/1n flare. This region is just rotating into view on the southeast limb, and is obviously a very large group, with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 484 (N04W00) was fairly active producing several M-class flares today. The largest was an M3/1n event that occurred at 23/0708 UTC. This region continues to depict a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered today. The F10 value is estimated and is based on the Penticton morning reading due to a flare enhancement during the reading of the noon value.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both very capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from active to major storm levels for the forecast period. These elevated conditions are expected as a result of the partial halo CME on 22/0754 UTC and from the X5/1b flare at 23/0835 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X50%50%50%
Protón25%30%35%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Oct 183
  Previsto   24 Oct-26 Oct  190/195/195
  Media de 90 Días        23 Oct 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/033
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  040/050-040/050-030/050
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%40%
Tormenta Menor40%40%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%30%20%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor40%40%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%40%40%

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