Viendo archivo de miércoles, 22 octubre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. The disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486 (S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's. Region 484 (N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC. Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster. A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Oct 154
  Previsto   23 Oct-25 Oct  160/165/170
  Media de 90 Días        22 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/039
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/038
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor25%40%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%25%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor35%40%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%30%10%

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