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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Oct 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. There has been a steady series of C-class flares and a single M1.0 at 21/0827 UTC. Region 484 (N05E26) continues to grow, but at a lesser rate than yesterday. The region is now 1650 millionths with at least a 50% increase in magnetic intensity. A region just beyond the East limb, generated a strong CME at approximately 21/0300 UTC, but does not appear to be Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate. Region 484, and the new Region approaching the East limb, are a combined threat to continue to generate C-class activity, with an occasional M-class flare. There is a slight chance for an isolated X-class event, and an even lesser chance for a proton-producing flare. By day three, Region 484 will near central meridian, and become a slightly higher threat for producing a flare event which could generate protons at near-Earth.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned coronal hole is supporting a high-speed solar wind stream, which is in turn supporting elevated magnetic activity at Earth. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three days. The coronal hole will proceed out of geoeffective range around the second day, but a faint shock associated with a CME which occurred on the 19th should lightly impact Earth, once again elevating magnetic activity on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Oct a 24 Oct
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Oct 152
  Previsto   22 Oct-24 Oct  150/155/160
  Media de 90 Días        21 Oct 114
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Oct  020/030
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/030
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  020/025-020/020-025/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Oct a 24 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor30%30%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor35%30%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%15%

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