Viendo archivo del lunes, 20 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low to moderate. Region 484
(N06E41) has increased again to 1500 millionths with over 56
sunspots and a strong Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. It
has produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M-class
flare at 0722 UTC. Further analysis of a CME which occurred 18
October around 1830 UTC indicates that a faint portion was
Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There's a slight chance for another isolated X-class
flare and an even lesser chance of proton activity from Region 484.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to minor storm levels. Another
favorably positioned coronal hole is perpetuating the high speed
solar wind stream, and is continuing to keep the geomagnetic field
disturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field has settled to a low
value of around 8 nT, which is keeping the overall disturbance at a
maximum of minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for isolated periods of
minor storming during day two. On day three, the faintly
Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic field,
and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Oct 135 Previsto 21 Oct-23 Oct 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 20 Oct 115
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 022/032 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Oct 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 025/030-015/020-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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