Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Today's largest flares
were a B9 at 0701 UTC from newly numbered Region 482 (N16E62), and a
long-duration B8 at 0932 UTC from behind east limb at about N03.
Newly numbered Region 481 (S08W17) emerged on the disk today. Solar
imagery suggests that there are additional active regions close to
east limb which will be rotating into view soon.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a fair chance for an isolated C-class flare
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
earth continues to be under the influence of a high-speed solar wind
stream. The stream continues to decline slowly as the initial speeds
around 560 km/s decreased down to about 520 km/s by the end of the
period. The interplanetary magnetic field showed regular oscillations
and had a weakly negative Bz component on average during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Unsettled
levels are expected to prevail for the second and third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 099 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 016/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 15% |
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