Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 septiembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 267 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Sep 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04E22) continues to be the most active region. It has increased in activity over the last 24 hours, producing a series of minor C-class flares, and elevating the solar X-ray background to approximately the B5 level. A 20-degree disappearing solar filament lifted off at 0532 UTC centered near S19W23. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain low. There's a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 464.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A geoeffective coronal hole has maintained a high-speed solar wind stream, and sustained elevated geomagnetic field activity for the last couple of days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day. Beginning approximately in the next 36 hours, the solar wind speeds should begin to relax in response to the passing of the coronal hole. But, within the next two days, the disappearing solar filament ejecta should impact the geomagnetic field causing a rapid increase in activity to minor storm levels with isolated periods of major storming possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Sep a 27 Sep
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Sep 134
  Previsto   25 Sep-27 Sep  135/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        24 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Sep  010/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  030/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/020-015/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Sep a 27 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%35%
Tormenta Menor20%20%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%40%
Tormenta Menor25%25%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%20%

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