Viendo archivo del martes, 23 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 266 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Regions 464 (N04E36) and
459 (S11W85) have been the most active, but have not produced any
significant flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 464 continues to show an increase in complexity and size, but
currently has only a low to fair chance of generating any
significant flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. A coronal
hole induced high speed stream continues to be geoeffective, causing
minor disruptions in the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain quiet to active. The coronal hole which has
induced the current high speed stream will continue to be
geoeffective for at least the next two days, with a chance for
isolated active to minor storm levels at high latitudes for the next
three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Sep 125 Previsto 24 Sep-26 Sep 125/125/125 Media de 90 Días 23 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Sep 017/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 015/020-015/015-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Sep a 26 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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