Viendo archivo del viernes, 19 septiembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 262 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. The first was a C2 at 18/2151 UTC which appears to have originated from a region behind the east limb near S06. The second was a C1 at 1820 UTC which was associated with activity in Region 461 (N17E21). Region 461 continues to be the largest region on the disk. Region 459 (S11W27) is showing slow, steady growth and possesses a predominantly East-West inversion line.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. This activity was due to the continued influence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. Solar wind velocity has shown a slow decline over the past 24 hours, with initial values around 800 km/s having decreased to day-end values around 675 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with some isolated minor storm periods for the next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to unsettled to slightly active is expected by the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Sep 111
  Previsto   20 Sep-22 Sep  110/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        19 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep  029/040
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  025/035
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  020/025-020/025-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%25%
Tormenta Menor25%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%35%
Tormenta Menor30%30%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%10%

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