Viendo archivo del lunes, 25 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 237 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
observed during the past 24 hours, a C1 at 24/2337 UTC from Region
436 (N07W39) and a C3/1f at 0259 UTC from Region 442 (S13E30). The
C3 flare was long duration and was associated with an erupting
prominence (located near S09E38). The event was followed by an
associated coronal mass ejection which was observed off the
southeast limb in C3 coronagraph data. New Region 445 (N04E38) was
assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Today's activity was initially at active levels in response to a
high speed solar wind stream. Activity increased to minor storm
levels from 0600-0900 UTC, but then backed off to mostly unsettled
levels from 0900 through the end of the day. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next two days as the current disturbance persists. A decline to
mostly unsettled is expected on the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Aug 117 Previsto 26 Aug-28 Aug 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 25 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Aug 014/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Aug 020/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Aug a 28 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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