Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 235 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Activity was at very low levels. Region 441 (N11E19)
produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z. Region 441 has shown some growth
in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours. Region 436
(N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. At around
23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47. New
Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for
C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was
predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT. For a fifteen
hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one
period at major storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed
stream effects continue. By day two and day three high speed stream
effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels
expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Aug 120 Previsto 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/122/125 Media de 90 Días 23 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 025/043 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Aug 045/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 025/035-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 15% |
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