Viendo archivo del viernes, 22 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 234 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Most observed activity occurred
in Region 436 (N07E03) which has grown since yesterday and has
become more magnetically complex. Region 440 (S07W06) is also
rapidly growing but has not yet produced significant activity. New
Regions 442 (S12E65) and 443 (N15E09) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 436 and 440. There is also a
slight chance of a small M-class flare in Region 436.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The high speed stream induced disturbance continues. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to vary from unsettled to storm levels. The intensity of
the coronal hole disturbance is expected to begin to diminish by the
third day of the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Aug 121 Previsto 23 Aug-25 Aug 120/120/122 Media de 90 Días 22 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Aug 029/053 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 025/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 025/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Aug a 25 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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