Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 agosto 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 233 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Aug 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A number of small x-ray flares occurred in Region 431 (S10W90) from its location just beyond the west limb. The largest was a C4 at 21/1522 UTC. The largest region presently on the disk is 436 (N07E17) but it appears relatively simple and has not flared today. New Regions 438 (S31W31), 439 (N08W23), 440 (S08E12), and 441 (N12E48) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low. C-class flares are possible in Regions 431, 436, and an area not yet numbered rotating around the east limb near S12E90.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels. The most disturbed period was from 21/0600 to 0900 UTC. ACE solar wind data indicates the gradual onset of a coronal hole high-speed-stream over the past 24 hours. Current solar wind parameters include speed at about 700 km/s, density from 1 to 5 p/cc, and Bz fluctuating between +/- 10 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active to minor storm levels for the duration of the forecast period as the high-speed-stream disturbance continues.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Aug a 24 Aug
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Aug 119
  Previsto   22 Aug-24 Aug  115/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        21 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Aug  012/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Aug  040/052
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  025/030-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Aug a 24 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo60%60%60%
Tormenta Menor20%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo65%65%65%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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