Viendo archivo del lunes, 18 agosto 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S10W52)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 18/0906Z as it continues to decay. Region
436 (N08E57) rotated further onto the visible disk revealing 160
millionths in area coverage and a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Activity is expected to be a low
levels. There is a slight chance of an isolated M-class event from
Region 431 or Region 436.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to severe storm levels. Around
18/0100Z the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
turned southward to -15 nT with a peak near -25 nT. This shift in
Bz resulted in sustained minor to severe storm levels until
18/1500Z. Solar wind data are consistent with an interplanetary
transient. Re-analysis of solar data for the past few days indicate
activity in Region 431 (near center disk) late on 14 August as a
possible source of this storm.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic
storming is expected diminish on day one with isolated minor storm
levels possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day
two and day three of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 116 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 062/082 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 020/025-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 01% | 01% |
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