Viendo archivo del lunes, 28 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 209 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels. Region 421
(S08E67) has shown significant growth over the period and has begun
to produce B and C-class flares. A weak gamma magnetic structure
has become evident in the central portion of the region. Newly
numbered Region 422 (N14W41) appears to be a fully developed region
(possibly the return of old Region 400) and has also produced B and
C-class flares today. This region may have a fair degree of
magnetic complexity, but it is currently too close to the east limb
for a comprehensive analysis.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 421 and 422 may both have the potential to
produce an isolated low level M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is believed to be
responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are expected throughout the interval
due to high speed solar wind effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jul a 31 Jul
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Jul 103 Previsto 29 Jul-31 Jul 110/115/120 Media de 90 Días 28 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 016/024 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Jul 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 020/025-015/025-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jul a 31 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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