Viendo archivo del domingo, 27 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 208 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Active regions
were quiescent through the period. Newly numbered Region 421
(S08E77) remains too close to the east limb for a detailed analysis
of its complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly very low levels. Based on SXI imagery Region 421 may
have the potential to produce C-class flares, pending further
analysis, as it has yet to fully rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and a sustained southward
Bz are believed responsible for the elevated activity. The solar
wind speed exceeded 800 km/s at approximately 27/0600Z. NASA/ACE
data also indicates a possible transient passage very early in the
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels.
Isolated minor storm conditions are possible at both mid and high
latitudes due to the effects of the high speed solar wind for days
one and two. Day three should see a decrease in the elevated solar
wind speeds and the associated effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jul 102 Previsto 28 Jul-30 Jul 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 27 Jul 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 020/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jul 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jul-30 Jul 020/030-020/030-012/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jul a 30 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 15% |
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