Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 193 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. A number of C-class
flares, as well as an M1.4/Sf at 12/1906UTC (with an associated Type
II radio sweep) erupted from an area on the east limb at N15. This
active region has not yet been numbered. Several large filaments in
the northwest and southwest quadrants erupted early in the period.
No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The active region on the east limb at N15 will most
likely continue to produce C and M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels. The
increased activity is most likely due to the effects of high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
position.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Isolated major storm
conditions may occur on day two as a result of transient passage
from the M3.6 x-ray flare that occurred on 10 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Jul 122 Previsto 13 Jul-15 Jul 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 12 Jul 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jul 036/046 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Jul 035/048 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 024/025-030/040-024/024
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jul a 15 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 25% | 20% |
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