Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 190 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 400 (N05W37)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.0 at 08/2135Z, and a C2.4/Sf at
09/1446Z. Region 397 (N14W76) produced several C-class flares, the
largest being a C5.8/Sf at 09/1637Z. No significant change was
observed in any active region except for Region 402, which grew in
magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. No new regions
were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with isolated chance of M-class flares from Regions 397, 400, or
402.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions possible on days two and three due to elevated
solar wind speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jul 126 Previsto 10 Jul-12 Jul 135/135/125 Media de 90 Días 09 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 010/010-020/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jul a 12 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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