Viendo archivo del lunes, 7 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 188 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Although
Region 397 (N12W52) produced the majority of today's activity, all
events were limited to B and C-class flares. This region has
undergone slight decay during the period but retains the delta
magnetic structure in the central portion of the spot cluster.
Region 400 (N05W10) also decreased in penumbral coverage over the
past 24 hours although the gamma structure remains intact. Regions
402 (S12W44), 403 (S18E54, and 404 (S10E64) were newly numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 397 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels. Elevated
solar wind speeds and periods of sustained southward Bz allowed for
the observed intervals of isolated active conditions. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to isolated active levels
throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Jul 133 Previsto 08 Jul-10 Jul 135/140/135 Media de 90 Días 07 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jul 010/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Jul 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul 012/015-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jul a 10 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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