Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 186 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. A few C-class
flares have occurred, all from Region 397 (N12W20).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There still exists a fair potential for
M-class flare activity from Region 397 (N12W20) and to a lesser
degree, Region 400 (N04E23).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. There
is still a strong influence from a favorably positioned coronal
hole, keeping the solar wind speeds elevated to around 750 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, falling off to quiet to active levels for day two, then
returning to unsettled to minor storm levels on day three. The
coronal hole currently elevating the solar wind speeds will rotate
out of geoeffective position in the next 24 hours, but that will be
followed on the third day by a glancing blow from a coronal mass
ejection which occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Jul 142 Previsto 06 Jul-08 Jul 144/148/148 Media de 90 Días 05 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jul 015/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Jul 021/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 020/020-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jul a 08 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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