Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 julio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 183 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jul 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 397 (N10E13) produced an M3/1f at 0728 UTC. The group has shown some decay of the spots in the middle portion of the group and loss of the delta configuration, but there has been some growth in the trailer spots. The magnetic classification for the group is now beta-gamma, reflecting its multiple inversion line structure. Region 400 (N04E58) has rotated more fully into view as a small, D-type region and managed to produced a C1/Sf.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there continues to be a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days from Region 397.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind conditions were nominal until about 1800 UTC when an increase was observed in speed and temperature and a decrease was observed in density. This might indicate the onset of the anticipated high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and mostly active for the second and third days. The increase is expected as a result of a high speed wind stream associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole. There is a possibility for isolated storm periods, particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jul a 05 Jul
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Jul 135
  Previsto   03 Jul-05 Jul  140/145/150
  Media de 90 Días        02 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jul  014/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Jul  012/014
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  015/020-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jul a 05 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%40%40%
Tormenta Menor20%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%15%

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