Viendo archivo de lunes, 30 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 181 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class flares. Most of these were from Region 396 (S06W54). Region 397 (N11E40) is the largest, most complex group on the disk but only produced two C-class flares during the past 24 hours. New Regions 398 (N04E66) and 399 (N15E52) were assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but with a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during the next three days. Regions 396 and 397 are the most likely sources for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels during the past 24 hours. The disturbance is due to a high speed solar wind stream associated with a well-positioned solar coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active for the next 24 hours. The high speed wind stream is expected to slowly subside. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and third days, but there will be a chance for isolated active periods, especially at the higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jul a 03 Jul
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Jun 128
  Previsto   01 Jul-03 Jul  130/130/135
  Media de 90 Días        30 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jun  014/026
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  025/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jul a 03 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%

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