Viendo archivo del miércoles, 25 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 176 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was low. The period was highlighted by a
very long duration C3.7 X-ray flare and CME that appears to have
originated from behind the NE limb. The likely source region of this
event is old Region 375 (N12, L=026) which was very large and
complex during its last transit of the visible disk. It is due to
make its return on the visible disk late on day two. Region 391
(N14W09) continues to grow, but after the burst of minor C-class
flares yesterday, it could only yield minor plage fluctuations this
period. No other noteworthy activity was observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Increased activity is possible on days two and three
with the return of old Region 375.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 520 to 620 km/s.
The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through day two. A
large southern coronal hole with a transequatorial extension will
move into a geoeffective position by day three; consequently,
occasional minor storm conditions are expected by the end of the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Jun 116 Previsto 26 Jun-28 Jun 115/120/130 Media de 90 Días 25 Jun 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jun 020/031 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Jun 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 012/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jun a 28 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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