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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 174 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03), and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region 387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2 MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jun a 26 Jun
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Jun 114
  Previsto   24 Jun-26 Jun  115/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        23 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jun  011/016
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  020/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jun a 26 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%30%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
Comments K-indicies The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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