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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 173 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This region has shown little change this period and still contains some weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jun a 25 Jun
Clase M25%25%25%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Jun 110
  Previsto   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        22 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jun a 25 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%35%35%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
Comments K-Indices On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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