Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.comInforme conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2003
IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at
21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This
region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than
doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced
several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay
phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact
in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was
fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma
magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the
potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels.
Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind
speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm
conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent
high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun
Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | yellow
|
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jun 115
Previsto 22 Jun-24 Jun 115/115/115
Media de 90 Días 21 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/012
Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jun 018/025
Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun 012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias |
Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
B. Latitudes Altas |
Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PLAIN
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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