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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at 21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Jun 115
  Previsto   22 Jun-24 Jun  115/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jun 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  018/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor20%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at 99999

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