Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 170 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jun a 22 Jun

Clase M	50%	50%	50%
Clase X	15%	15%	15%
Protón	25%	15%	15%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       19 Jun 123
  Previsto   20 Jun-22 Jun  125/125/125
  Media de 90 Días        19 Jun 124

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jun  036/054
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  023/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  020/025-020/025-012/020

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jun a 22 Jun

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	40%	40%	25%
Tormenta Menor	15%	15%	10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	10%	10%	05%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	50%	50%	40%
Tormenta Menor	20%	20%	15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	10%	10%	10%

PLAIN GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. 99999

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