Viendo archivo del martes, 17 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.comInforme conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2003
IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region
continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto
the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual
decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level
activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with
elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major
storm levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock
is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels
possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day
three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Protón | 30% | 20% | 20% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jun 122
Previsto 18 Jun-20 Jun 125/120/120
Media de 90 Días 17 Jun 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 020/032
Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 040/050
Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias |
Activo | 35% | 40% | 40% |
Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 20% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
B. Latitudes Altas |
Activo | 40% | 50% | 50% |
Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 25% |
Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 15% |
VII Comment:
K-Indices:
On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.
GOES Protons:
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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