Viendo archivo del martes, 17 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 168 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C2 flare at 0222 UTC from Region 386 (S07E58). This region continues to increase in area coverage as it rotates further onto the visible disk. Magnetic analysis indicates a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 380 (S15W64) continues a its gradual decay in area and now has a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of isolated high level activity. Region 386 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A six-hour period of southward Bz, from 06 - 09 UTC combined with elevated solar wind speed near 510 km/s produced minor and major storm levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A weak CME shock is possible late on day one with isolated minor storm levels possible. High speed stream effects are expected on day two and day three with minor storm levels possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón30%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Jun 122
  Previsto   18 Jun-20 Jun  125/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        17 Jun 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun  020/032
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  040/050
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  020/030-020/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%40%40%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%50%
Tormenta Menor20%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%15%
VII Comment: K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the H-trace on the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. Beginning 1700 UTC on June 18, GOES 11 (105W) will become the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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