Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 167 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was very high. New Region 386 (S07E71)
produced an X1/Sf flare at 15/2356 UTC with an associated Type II
(841 km/s) and Type IV radio sweep. SOHO/LACSO imagery indicates a
full halo CME, however the majority of the ejecta was off to the
east. Region 386 currently indicates a beta magnetic configuration
but its proximity to the east limb prevents a detailed analysis of
the magnetic complexity. Region 380 (S16W51) has slowed its rate of
decay and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New
Region 386 was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 386 is expected to produce M-class
and possibly X-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
source of the minor storm conditions may be associated with the
Boulder magnetometer scaling problem (see comment in VII). Solar
wind speed was in gradual decay from a peak near 600 km/s early in
the day to a minimum of 450 km/s by 1600UTC. Wind speed then
increased to 550 km/s by the end of the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with a chance of isolated minor storm
levels. Late on day one or early on day two, weak CME shock effects
are possible from the X1 event mentioned in IA. A coronal hole high
speed flow is expected late on day two and day three with isolated
minor storm levels possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Jun a 19 Jun
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Jun 123 Previsto 17 Jun-19 Jun 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 16 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 013/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 014/023 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 012/015-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Jun a 19 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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