Viendo archivo del jueves, 12 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 163 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N11W73) produced three M-class flares, including an M7.3/1n at 12/0130 UTC, an M2.9/Sf at 11/2151 UTC, and an M1.1/Sf at 12/1712 UTC. Region 375 is decreasing slightly in size as it approaches the west limb, and Region 380 is stable. Background x-ray flux remained at C levels during the period. New Region 384 (N16W42) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed decreased to around 500 km/s as a coronal hole has rotated out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible active conditions on day two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a coronal hole passes into geoeffective position. Active conditions on day two might also be the result of potential effects of CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity observed on 11 June 03.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Jun a 15 Jun
Clase M95%75%75%
Clase X40%30%20%
Protón30%30%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Jun 164
  Previsto   13 Jun-15 Jun  150/145/130
  Media de 90 Días        12 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/012-015/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Jun a 15 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%40%35%
Tormenta Menor15%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

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