Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 162 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N10W62) produced major flare activity including an X1.3/2b at 11/0002 UTC and an X1.6/1n at 11/2015 UTC. Region 375 maintained its size and magnetic complexity. Region 380 produced an M1.8/1f at 11/1743 UTC. At 11/1730 UTC a filament near S37E12 erupted and was observed on SOHO/EIT and Mauna Loa H-alpha. Background X-ray flux remained at M levels for 6 hours during the period beginning at about 1300 UTC. New Region 383 (N19E22) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels, due to continued effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one, with isolated periods of minor storm conditions possible due to CME arrival from yesterday's flare activity. Unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three as the coronal hole wind stream moves out of geoeffective position. Active conditions are possible on day three due to potential effects of CMEs related to the major flares and erupting filament observed today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Jun a 14 Jun
Clase M95%95%75%
Clase X40%40%30%
Protón30%30%30%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 Jun 193
  Previsto   12 Jun-14 Jun  160/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        11 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 Jun  019/027
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 Jun  020/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun  010/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Jun a 14 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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