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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 157 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Today's activity consisted of numerous low level C-class events. The main sources for the activity were Region 375 (N12E09), Region 378 (N16E57) and a new region behind east limb at about S14. Region 375 showed flux emergence and the formation of a delta configuration during the first half of the day. There was a slight decay of flux and sunspot area in this region during the last half of the day. New Region 379 (S19W68) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 375 during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds showed a marked increase beginning around 0200 UTC and have been running from 600-700 km/s due to another coronal hole rotating into a favorable position. So far, however, the geomagnetic response has been mild. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours, and is expected to increase to mostly active with minor storm periods for the 2nd and 3rd days. The increase is expected as a response to a continuation of today's high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jun a 09 Jun
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Jun 126
  Previsto   07 Jun-09 Jun  125/125/125
  Media de 90 Días        06 Jun 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jun  009/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  015/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jun a 09 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%40%40%
Tormenta Menor15%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%45%45%
Tormenta Menor30%40%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%10%

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