Viendo archivo del jueves, 5 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 156 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares today: a C2 at 1019 UT from Region 377 (N05E57), and a C1 at 1734 UT from Region 375 (N12E24). There was also a CME that erupted behind the southwest limb which first became visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph at 2006 UT. There was a Type II radio sweep associated with this CME. Region 375 dominates the disk in size and complexity, and shows mixed magnetic polarities as well as an east-west inversion line which could build up magnetic shear. However, there is no indication of emerging flux in the region at this time. New region number 378 (N16E69) was assigned to a small, C-type group today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event sometime over the next three days. Region 375 is considered to be the most likely source for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed observations show a steady decline from values around 800 km/s at the start of the period to values around 500 km/s by the end of the period. A decline in temperature was also seen, suggesting that the Earth is moving into normal, ambient solar wind flow. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated active periods, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Another coronal hole will move into favorable position sometime in the next 36 to 48 hours, and conditions are expected to increase to active, most likely beginning late on the second day and lasting through the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Jun a 08 Jun
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Jun 114
  Previsto   06 Jun-08 Jun  115/118/120
  Media de 90 Días        05 Jun 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Jun  013/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Jun  010/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun  015/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Jun a 08 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%35%
Tormenta Menor15%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%35%25%
Tormenta Menor30%30%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%20%

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