Viendo archivo del lunes, 2 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 153 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W99) produced
an M6/Sf flare at 02/0022 UTC from around the west limb. The flare
was associated with a 620 sfu burst at 2695 MHz and Type II and IV
radio sweeps. This region also produced an M3/Sf flare at 02/0837
UTC and an M1/Sf flare at 02/1317 UTC as well as other smaller
flares. The M6 and M3 flares were accompanied by CMEs directed
towards the west. Region 375 (N12E65) also produced several flares,
the largest being an M1/Sf at 02/1733 UTC. New Region 376 (N12E13)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are likely in Regions 365 and 375.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The most disturbed periods were from 02/0600 to 1200 UTC. Solar wind
observations suggest that the expected coronal hole high-speed
stream has arrived.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels for the
duration of the forecast period while under the influence of the
high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jun a 05 Jun
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jun 121 Previsto 03 Jun-05 Jun 120/115/115 Media de 90 Días 02 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jun 018/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jun 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 020/030-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jun a 05 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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