Viendo archivo del viernes, 30 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 150 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 365 (S07W59) remains the
largest and most complex sunspot group on the disk with some decay
evident since yesterday. The largest flare in this region was a
C8/1n at 30/0650 UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to moderate
to high. Region 365 remains capable of another major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to severe storm levels.
The field was mostly unsettled to active since about 30/0600 UTC
with a single minor storm period from 30/1500-1800 UTC. The CME
associated with the X1 flare early on 29 May was apparently observed
to encounter the ACE spacecraft at about 30/1600 UTC. The shock in
solar wind parameters was not strong and an SI was not clearly
observed by ground magnetometers. The proton event at greater than
10 MeV has ended: 28/2335 UTC start, 121 pfu peak at 29/1530 UTC,
and 30/0110 UTC end.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels as the
current CME passes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 May a 02 Jun
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 May 117 Previsto 31 May-02 Jun 115/110/105 Media de 90 Días 30 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 May 059/089 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 May 035/060 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 025/040-015/025-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 May a 02 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 01% |
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