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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 368 (S33E37) produced the largest event of the period, a C3.0/Sf flare that occurred at 25/1754Z. This region exhibits a simple Hax alpha magnetic structure. Region 365 (S08E08) has shown rapid growth throughout the period in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. Late in the period this region produced its first reported flare, a B5.2 x-ray flare occurring at 25/2036Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 365 has become capable of producing C-class flares, if growth continues at this rate an isolated M-class flare may be a possibility over the next 24-48 hours.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An oscillating Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field allowed for two consecutive periods of minor storm conditions at both the middle and high latitudes during local nighttime hours. Elevated conditions are due to a high speed stream coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through the forecast period. Minor storm conditions are possible especially at local nighttime hours. Isolated major storm intervals are possible on day two of the period. The elevated activity is expected in anticipation of yet another recurrent high speed stream coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 May a 28 May
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 May 121
  Previsto   26 May-28 May  125/125/120
  Media de 90 Días        25 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 May  014/022
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 May  020/020
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May  020/025-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 May a 28 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%10%

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