Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 145 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 368 (S33E37)
produced the largest event of the period, a C3.0/Sf flare that
occurred at 25/1754Z. This region exhibits a simple Hax alpha
magnetic structure. Region 365 (S08E08) has shown rapid growth
throughout the period in penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity.
Late in the period this region produced its first reported flare, a
B5.2 x-ray flare occurring at 25/2036Z. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 365 has become capable of producing C-class
flares, if growth continues at this rate an isolated M-class flare
may be a possibility over the next 24-48 hours.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An
oscillating Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
allowed for two consecutive periods of minor storm conditions at
both the middle and high latitudes during local nighttime hours.
Elevated conditions are due to a high speed stream coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through the forecast
period. Minor storm conditions are possible especially at local
nighttime hours. Isolated major storm intervals are possible on day
two of the period. The elevated activity is expected in
anticipation of yet another recurrent high speed stream coronal
hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 May a 28 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 May 121 Previsto 26 May-28 May 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 25 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 May 014/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 May 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 May-28 May 020/025-025/030-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 May a 28 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 50% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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