Viendo archivo del sábado, 24 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 144 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event was a B7 flare at 1428Z on the southwest limb. The most
likely source is Region 357 (S16W99) from beyond the west limb. The
remaining regions on the visible disk are small and have simple
magnetic configurations.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Elevated
solar wind speed resulted in an isolated period of minor storm
levels during local nighttime hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Elevated solar wind
speeds are likely to result in isolated active conditions and
possibly isolated minor storm levels on day one of the period. By
day three, another coronal high speed stream is expected to be in a
favorable geo-effective position with active to minor storm levels
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 May a 27 May
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 May 117 Previsto 25 May-27 May 120/120/125 Media de 90 Días 24 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 May 018/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 May 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 012/015-015/020-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 May a 27 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 45% | 55% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 15% |
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