Viendo archivo del viernes, 23 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S11W30)
produced two flares: a C1/Sf at 22/2114Z and a B7 at 23/0830Z.
This region continues to decrease in areal coverage. Two new
regions were numbered today: Region 369 (N12E08) and Region 370
(N16E53).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 362 has the potential for C-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole
high speed stream effects continues and solar wind speed remains
slightly elevated near 500 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to continue through day one of the
period with active conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on day two and day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 May a 26 May
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 May 118 Previsto 24 May-26 May 120/125/130 Media de 90 Días 23 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 May 015/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 May 017/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 015/020-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 May a 26 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 10% |
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