Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 mayo 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S12W03) produced a C1 flare at 0604Z and continues to exhibit a beta gamma magnetic configuration. A nine-degree solar filament disappeared near N19W05 at 20/0005Z. No Earth directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 362 and 364 have the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Periods of southward Bz near -10 nT resulted in two active periods during the day. Solar wind speed began a steady increase, most likely due to the onset of an equatorial coronal hole high speed flow. Wind speed increased from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s and continues to rise.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole high speed flow is expected to produce active conditions during the period with a chance of isolated minor storming particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
Clase M10%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 May 119
  Previsto   22 May-24 May  125/135/140
  Media de 90 Días        21 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 May  009/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 May  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%35%40%
Tormenta Menor10%15%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%50%50%
Tormenta Menor20%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%15%15%

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