Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 139 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The most noteworthy
activity this period was a long duration B-class flare, associated
with a filament eruption and CME from near N30E30 at 19/0930Z. The
CME does not appear to have an earthward trajectory. Region 362
(S11E23) continues to exhibit some complexity, but no new growth was
noted and the region was stable. New Region 364 (S26W29) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 362.
New Regions rotating on the SE limb may increase activity levels
late in the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active
periods over the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 May a 22 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 May 115 Previsto 20 May-22 May 120/130/135 Media de 90 Días 19 May 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 May 007/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 May 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 May a 22 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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